Writing
Model journals, methodology, and report cards from a live prediction-market system, every column we've published, newest first.
7 articles
McConnell's Calls, Week 1: the slate and the math behind every call
Most picks content sells you the loudest opinion on the board. We publish the quietest one, because that is where our model has been measurably least wrong. Every call carries the slot's actual track record, including the slots where that record is a coin flip.
All articles
← Back to the deskMcConnell's Calls, Week 1: the slate and the math behind every call
Most picks content sells you the loudest opinion on the board. We publish the quietest one, because that is where our model has been measurably least wrong. Every call carries the slot's actual track record, including the slots where that record is a coin flip.
We rebuilt the quarterback rating from scratch. Accuracy won.
Success isn't wins. It's points per drive, and the QB controls twice as much of that as he does winning. Accuracy is the engine, 'clutch' is noise, QBR is the least stable number in football, and the rating that beats it credits the thing the old stats ignore: running.
We rated every college quarterback. Then we learned the Heisman isn't a quarterback award.
There's no public EPA in college past 2021, the schedules are a free-for-all, and the biggest award is decided by story as much as by snaps. So we built an opponent-adjusted rating that survives all three, then learned that predicting the Heisman means measuring the team, not just the quarterback, and that even then a stubborn slice of the trophy is pure narrative.
Omaha is set: eight teams in, and the model likes Georgia
Georgia leads the model's board at 41.8 percent, North Carolina sits second, and Troy is the 0.4 percent story nobody bracketed. The full title board, plus where to watch the model disagree with the book.
The model's 2026 NBA report card
Totals were the real edge. Killing a broken calibration table was the best decision we made. And the model favored the Spurs in a Finals the Knicks won. The full receipts, wins first.
Seven Selection-Day stats that separated CWS champions from the field (with one famous exception)
Every CWS champion since 2009 except 2022 Ole Miss passed all seven Selection-Day thresholds. Four 2026 teams match the fingerprint. Honest about what the filter is and is not.
The CWS Tracker: Where the Model Disagrees with DK
Where the model disagrees with DK on the 2026 NCAA baseball field, plus how the 50K Monte Carlo gets built and what not to do with it.