The model vs the closing line.

ML · ATS · disagreement quality · recent form

Every pregame pick from the model, scored against the closing Vegas line, 2018–2025, out-of-sample (see methodology below for exactly what that means). Toggle between all games, regular season only, or playoffs only. Pushes excluded from denominators, ties excluded from ML. Confidence intervals are Wilson 95%. Juice eligibility uses the -110 breakeven (52.38%). Totals (O/U) are not scored here: the model has no demonstrated edge over the closing total, so we don't publish a totals pick (see methodology below).