The model vs the closing line.

CANONICAL · ML · ATS · disagreement quality · recent form

Every pregame pick from the canonical rating, scored against the closing Vegas line, 2018–2025 (walk-forward, out-of-sample). Toggle between all games, regular season only, or playoffs only. Pushes excluded from denominators, ties excluded from ML. Confidence intervals are Wilson 95%. Juice eligibility uses the -110 breakeven (52.38%). Totals (O/U) are not scored here — the canonical rating has no demonstrated edge over the closing total, so we don't publish a totals pick (see methodology below).