College football ratings, game projections & playoff odds
Season sim · Committee proxy · Title odds
Three views of one model. Power ratings sort every FBS team by overall rating. The projected CFP shows the median 12-team field across thousands of simulated seasons, with committee-proxy seeding learned from a decade of historical brackets. And the same sim prices every game on the schedule against the market.
How the playoff projection works
The model
The CFB simulator runs the full regular season game-by-game. Each game outcome is sampled from a per-game logit on the rating gap plus home-field advantage plus a noise term. After the regular season the top 12 teams are selected and seeded by a committee proxy trained on 2014 through 2024 CFP brackets. The bracket then plays out: first round on campus with home-field advantage, quarterfinals and beyond at neutral sites. Repeat ten thousand times; aggregate the results.
What the columns mean
Rating is the team's overall strength on a scale where one point is worth roughly six percentage points of game win probability. Projected wins is the mean across all simulated seasons. Make-playoff is the share of simulated seasons in which the team made the field. Win title is the share in which the team won it all. Title shares add to one across the full 138-team field, so even a top team's share is a meaningful lead on a 138-team distribution.
The DK columns
DK CFP and DK title are DraftKings futures prices with the vig removed, refreshed weekly. Title odds have the house edge taken out with the power method (built for long-tail outright markets); the make-the-CFP prices are scaled so the listed field sums to twelve playoff spots. Where our column and the DK column disagree by a lot, one of us is wrong, and the season will say which. We publish both so you can keep score.