College football power rankings & projected playoff
Two views of the same model. Power rankings sort every FBS team by overall rating. The projected CFP shows the median 12-team field across thousands of simulated seasons, with committee-proxy seeding learned from a decade of historical CFP brackets.
Loading rankings…
How the playoff projection works
The model
The CFB simulator runs the full regular season game-by-game. Each game outcome is sampled from a per-game logit on the rating gap plus home-field advantage plus a noise term. After the regular season the top 12 teams are selected and seeded by a committee proxy trained on 2014 through 2024 CFP brackets. The bracket then plays out: first round on campus with home-field advantage, quarterfinals and beyond at neutral sites. Repeat ten thousand times; aggregate the results.
What the columns mean
Rating is the team's overall strength on a scale where one point is worth roughly six percentage points of game win probability. Projected wins is the mean across all simulated seasons. Make-playoff is the share of simulated seasons in which the team made the field. Win title is the share in which the team won it all. Title shares add to one across the full 138-team field, so even Georgia's 13.5% is a meaningful lead on a 138-team distribution.