NBA championship odds & projected playoff bracket
Every series in the bracket plays out in the model thousands of times. The probabilities below are the share of simulated postseasons each team won the title. Series shown reflect the current bracket state.
Loading projections…
How the model works
Each team carries two Elo ratings: one fit on the regular season, one fit on playoff-only games. The two get blended for postseason matchups, since the playoff version of the league rewards different things. Within a series, the model tracks the current state (down 0-1, leading 2-1, etc.) because trailing teams play differently. Injury news shifts ratings live. The bracket runs thousands of times; the probabilities you see are the empirical rates.
The bias correction was tuned against the 2024 and 2025 playoffs: 166 backfilled games, calibrated so the model's claimed probabilities matched the realized rates inside two percentage points on a holdout window.