https://margin.mcconnelldigital.com Model-driven sports projections, journal, and open data from The Margin. en-us Tue, 08 Sep 2026 17:36:52 GMT https://margin.mcconnelldigital.com/posts/cws-champion-filter/ https://margin.mcconnelldigital.com/posts/cws-champion-filter/ Wed, 27 May 2026 12:00:00 GMT Every CWS champion since 2009 except 2022 Ole Miss passed all seven Selection-Day thresholds. Four 2026 teams match the fingerprint. Honest about what the filter is and is not. https://margin.mcconnelldigital.com/journal/2026-05-13-pipeline-fixes/ https://margin.mcconnelldigital.com/journal/2026-05-13-pipeline-fixes/ Wed, 13 May 2026 12:00:00 GMT Weekly model audit ledger entry. https://margin.mcconnelldigital.com/journal/2026-05-13-week-20/ https://margin.mcconnelldigital.com/journal/2026-05-13-week-20/ Wed, 13 May 2026 12:00:00 GMT Weekly model audit -- 1 falsifications. https://margin.mcconnelldigital.com/posts/week-01-mcconnells-calls/ https://margin.mcconnelldigital.com/posts/week-01-mcconnells-calls/ Wed, 12 Aug 2026 12:00:00 GMT Most picks content sells you the loudest opinion on the board. We publish the quietest one, because that is where our model has been measurably least wrong. Every call carries the slot's actual track record, including the slots where that record is a coin flip. https://margin.mcconnelldigital.com/posts/cbb-cws-tracker-methodology/ https://margin.mcconnelldigital.com/posts/cbb-cws-tracker-methodology/ Tue, 26 May 2026 12:00:00 GMT Where the model disagrees with DK on the 2026 NCAA baseball field, plus how the 50K Monte Carlo gets built and what not to do with it. https://margin.mcconnelldigital.com/posts/cws-omaha-2026/ https://margin.mcconnelldigital.com/posts/cws-omaha-2026/ Sun, 14 Jun 2026 12:00:00 GMT Georgia leads the model's board at 41.8 percent, North Carolina sits second, and Troy is the 0.4 percent story nobody bracketed. The full title board, plus where to watch the model disagree with the book. https://margin.mcconnelldigital.com/posts/nba-2026-report-card/ https://margin.mcconnelldigital.com/posts/nba-2026-report-card/ Sat, 13 Jun 2026 12:00:00 GMT Totals were the real edge. Killing a broken calibration table was the best decision we made. And the model favored the Spurs in a Finals the Knicks won. The full receipts, wins first. https://margin.mcconnelldigital.com/posts/college-qb-rating-heisman-power-conference/ https://margin.mcconnelldigital.com/posts/college-qb-rating-heisman-power-conference/ Mon, 29 Jun 2026 12:00:00 GMT There's no public EPA in college past 2021, the schedules are a free-for-all, and the biggest award is decided by story as much as by snaps. So we built an opponent-adjusted rating that survives all three, then learned that predicting the Heisman means measuring the team, not just the quarterback, and that even then a stubborn slice of the trophy is pure narrative. https://margin.mcconnelldigital.com/posts/qb-rating-the-accuracy-engine/ https://margin.mcconnelldigital.com/posts/qb-rating-the-accuracy-engine/ Mon, 29 Jun 2026 12:00:00 GMT Success isn't wins. It's points per drive, and the QB controls twice as much of that as he does winning. Accuracy is the engine, 'clutch' is noise, QBR is the least stable number in football, and the rating that beats it credits the thing the old stats ignore: running.