NFL · Power rankings
NFL Super Bowl odds, power-ranked
Every team in the league sorted by the model's probability of winning the next Super Bowl. The model trains on historical ratings, regresses last year's win total toward an offseason-adjusted mean (new QB, new coach, big roster moves), and simulates the season forward.
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How to read the gap column
Positive numbers mean the model has the team higher than the market. Those are the cells where, if the model is calibrated, the market price offers more than the team is worth. Negative numbers are the opposite. Both directions are interesting and both require the model to actually be calibrated, which is why every season the calibration page logs how often the model's claimed probabilities matched the realized rate.