NFL · Team PowerTier 1 · Descriptive
NFL Team Power, the one rating everything reads
One rating drives everything: the Super Bowl simulation, the weekly game model, and the win-total projections all read this same team-power number. It blends a regressed Elo base with player value (our QB rating, roster AVAR) and, in-season, the live decomposed-Elo update. Every team’s rating reconciles to its parts below.
Games, model vs. the market
Every game scored by the same rating. Upcoming weeks show the model’s margin and win probability next to Vegas (agree within ±3 pts); completed weeks show how each spread / moneyline pick graded against the closing line (the final line before kickoff). Totals (O/U) are not shown: the rating has no demonstrated edge over the closing total, so we publish margin and win probability only.
No games for 2026 W(latest).