NFL · Team PowerTier 1 · Descriptive
NFL Team Power — the canonical rating
One rating drives everything: the Super Bowl simulation, the weekly game model, and the win-total projections all read this same canonical team-power number. It blends a regressed Elo base with player value (QB-v6, roster AVAR) and, in-season, the live decomposed-Elo update. Every team’s rating reconciles to its parts below.
Games — model vs. the market
Every game scored by the same canonical rating. Upcoming weeks show the model’s margin and win probability next to Vegas (agree within ±3 pts); completed weeks show how each spread / moneyline pick graded against the closing line. Totals (O/U) are not shown — the canonical rating has no demonstrated edge over the closing total, so we publish margin and win probability only.
No games for 2026 W(latest).