NFL
2026 NFL win totals
Frozen Aug 28
Live chances are loading or unavailable; the records below are current.
The latest simulation's chance that the pick wins.
- Not simulated yetchance to hitPreseason projection 10.2 wins
- Not simulated yetchance to hitPreseason projection 10.1 wins
- Not simulated yetchance to hitPreseason projection 6.7 wins
- Not simulated yetchance to hitPreseason projection 6.3 wins
- Not simulated yetchance to hitPreseason projection 10.2 wins
- Not simulated yetchance to hitPreseason projection 9.3 wins
- Not simulated yetchance to hitPreseason projection 8.8 wins
- Not simulated yetchance to hitPreseason projection 7.3 wins
- Not simulated yetchance to hitPreseason projection 10.9 wins
- Not simulated yetchance to hitPreseason projection 7.9 wins
- Not simulated yetchance to hitPreseason projection 7.8 wins
- Not simulated yetchance to hitPreseason projection 6.3 wins
- Not simulated yetchance to hitPreseason projection 10.4 wins
- Not simulated yetchance to hitPreseason projection 8.3 wins
- Not simulated yetchance to hitPreseason projection 7.8 wins
- Not simulated yetchance to hitPreseason projection 6.2 wins
- Not simulated yetchance to hitPreseason projection 10.0 wins
- Not simulated yetchance to hitPreseason projection 8.3 wins
- Not simulated yetchance to hitPreseason projection 7.9 wins
- Not simulated yetchance to hitPreseason projection 7.4 wins
- Not simulated yetchance to hitPreseason projection 10.5 wins
- Not simulated yetchance to hitPreseason projection 9.3 wins
- Not simulated yetchance to hitPreseason projection 8.2 wins
- Not simulated yetchance to hitPreseason projection 8.1 wins
- Not simulated yetchance to hitPreseason projection 8.5 wins
- Not simulated yetchance to hitPreseason projection 8.2 wins
- Not simulated yetchance to hitPreseason projection 7.8 wins
- Not simulated yetchance to hitPreseason projection 6.4 wins
- Not simulated yetchance to hitPreseason projection 10.8 wins
- Not simulated yetchance to hitPreseason projection 10.8 wins
- Not simulated yetchance to hitPreseason projection 8.8 wins
- Not simulated yetchance to hitPreseason projection 6.6 wins
Every number: the frozen board, prices and CSV
WorseBetterColor is the gap between model wins and the line: teal over, brick under. Click a header to sort; Division groups the teams.
| AFC East | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo BillsBUF | Under | 10.2 | 10.5 | −0.3 | 45% | −120 / +100 | 0-0 | Needs 7 losses of 17 |
| New England PatriotsNE | Over | 10.1 | 9.5* | +0.6 | 58% | +115 / −140 | 0-0 | Needs 10 of 17 |
| New York JetsNYJ | Over | 6.7 | 5.5 | +1.2 | 67% | −120 / +100 | 0-0 | Needs 6 of 17 |
| Miami DolphinsMIA | Over | 6.3 | 3.5 | +2.8 | 80% | −140 / +110 | 0-0 | Needs 4 of 17 |
| AFC North | ||||||||
| Baltimore RavensBAL | Under | 10.2 | 10.5* | −0.3 | 46% | +115 / −140 | 0-0 | Needs 7 losses of 17 |
| Pittsburgh SteelersPIT | Over | 9.3 | 8.5 | +0.8 | 61% | +110 / −130 | 0-0 | Needs 9 of 17 |
| Cincinnati BengalsCIN | Under | 8.8 | 10.5 | −1.7 | 28% | +115 / −140 | 0-0 | Needs 7 losses of 17 |
| Cleveland BrownsCLE | Over | 7.3 | 5.5 | +1.8 | 72% | −125 / +105 | 0-0 | Needs 6 of 17 |
| AFC South | ||||||||
| Houston TexansHOU | Over | 10.9 | 9.5 | +1.4 | 70% | −146 / +124 | 0-0 | Needs 10 of 17 |
| Indianapolis ColtsIND | Over | 7.9 | 7.5 | +0.4 | 55% | −140 / +115 | 0-0 | Needs 8 of 17 |
| Jacksonville JaguarsJAX | Under | 7.8 | 9.5* | −1.7 | 28% | −140 / +116 | 0-0 | Needs 8 losses of 17 |
| Tennessee TitansTEN | Under | 6.3 | 6.5 | −0.2 | 47% | +100 / −120 | 0-0 | Needs 11 losses of 17 |
| AFC West | ||||||||
| Denver BroncosDEN | Over | 10.4 | 9.5 | +0.9 | 63% | −115 / −105 | 0-0 | Needs 10 of 17 |
| Los Angeles ChargersLAC | Under | 8.3 | 9.5 | −1.2 | 33% | −140 / +115 | 0-0 | Needs 8 losses of 17 |
| Kansas City ChiefsKC | Under | 7.8 | 10.5 | −2.7 | 18% | +115 / −140 | 0-0 | Needs 7 losses of 17 |
| Las Vegas RaidersLV | Over | 6.2 | 5.5 | +0.7 | 60% | −150 / +125 | 0-0 | Needs 6 of 17 |
| NFC East | ||||||||
| Philadelphia EaglesPHI | Under | 10.0 | 10.5 | −0.5 | 44% | +115 / −140 | 0-0 | Needs 7 losses of 17 |
| Dallas CowboysDAL | Under | 8.3 | 9.5 | −1.2 | 35% | +100 / −120 | 0-0 | Needs 8 losses of 17 |
| New York GiantsNYG | Over | 7.9 | 7.5 | +0.4 | 55% | −110 / −110 | 0-0 | Needs 8 of 17 |
| Washington CommandersWAS | Under | 7.4 | 7.5 | −0.1 | 49% | −105 / −115 | 0-0 | Needs 10 losses of 17 |
| NFC North | ||||||||
| Detroit LionsDET | Over | 10.5 | 10.5 | +0.0 | 50% | −115 / −105 | 0-0 | Needs 11 of 17 |
| Minnesota VikingsMIN | Over | 9.3 | 8.5 | +0.8 | 60% | −120 / +100 | 0-0 | Needs 9 of 17 |
| Green Bay PackersGB | Under | 8.2 | 9.5 | −1.3 | 33% | −130 / +110 | 0-0 | Needs 8 losses of 17 |
| Chicago BearsCHI | Under | 8.1 | 9.5 | −1.4 | 31% | +105 / −125 | 0-0 | Needs 8 losses of 17 |
| NFC South | ||||||||
| Tampa Bay BuccaneersTB | Over | 8.5 | 8.5 | +0.0 | 51% | +115 / −136 | 0-0 | Needs 9 of 17 |
| New Orleans SaintsNO | Over | 8.2 | 7.5 | +0.7 | 59% | −120 / +100 | 0-0 | Needs 8 of 17 |
| Atlanta FalconsATL | Over | 7.8 | 7.5 | +0.3 | 54% | +120 / −140 | 0-0 | Needs 8 of 17 |
| Carolina PanthersCAR | Under | 6.4 | 7.5 | −1.1 | 35% | +115 / −136 | 0-0 | Needs 10 losses of 17 |
| NFC West | ||||||||
| Los Angeles RamsLA | Under | 10.8 | 11.5 | −0.7 | 40% | −130 / +110 | 0-0 | Needs 6 losses of 17 |
| Seattle SeahawksSEA | Over | 10.8 | 10.5 | +0.3 | 54% | −115 / −105 | 0-0 | Needs 11 of 17 |
| San Francisco 49ersSF | Under | 8.8 | 10.5* | −1.7 | 29% | −146 / +120 | 0-0 | Needs 7 losses of 17 |
| Arizona CardinalsARI | Over | 6.6 | 3.5 | +3.1 | 85% | −136 / +115 | 0-0 | Needs 4 of 17 |
- Pick
- Over or under the frozen line: the sign of model wins minus the line.
- Model wins
- Average wins across the preseason season simulation.
- Line
- The frozen line the pick grades against. * means DraftKings moved off it after the freeze.
- Gap
- Model wins minus the line. Gaps of a win or more are bold.
- Over chance
- Preseason chance of the over, read off the simulation's win distribution. Not a price.
- Over / under price
- DraftKings' prices when captured on Aug 28.
- Record, Status
- Actual 2026 record from every final game so far, and what the pick still needs.
How this works
The picks were frozen on August 28 and are never restated. Each grades in January against the team’s actual regular-season wins and the frozen line; a tie is not a win. This market has no graded history on this site.
“Chance to hit” comes from the same season simulation that drives the rest of the NFL pages, rerun every Tuesday: 50,000 seasons played from the current ratings, with every finished game locked to its result. For an over at 9.5 it is the share of seasons with 10 or more wins. Once a pick is mathematically decided it shows 100% or 0%. The projection updates weekly; records update as games go final, so a record can be a game ahead of the projection under it.
“Expected right” adds up the 32 chances. It is not a forecast of profit: the prices on each side cost money, and this board is a record of the model, not a betting edge.
Lines and prices are DraftKings’ season win-total markets, captured August 28, 2026. 4 teams (NE, BAL, JAX, SF) moved a full point between the freeze and that capture, and carry the * marker. The picks were frozen against a consensus from VegasInsider: the median of three books, leaving out a fourth column that carried the same line on every team. The books in that table were shown as images, so the consensus is recorded by column position rather than by book name.
New England Patriots: DraftKings’ line is 10.5; the pick was frozen against 9.5 and grades against that number. At the current line the model would take the other side. The pick stands as frozen.
These are season win totals, a count of games won. They are not the per-game point totals, which the site does not call for the NFL.