Wide Receiver Ratings — Season 2025
A descriptive composite of every qualified WR's season: target volume, air-yards share, QB-decoupled efficiency, and yards per game — each z-scored within the season and equally weighted. Descriptive ranking by design, not a projection. Garrett-Wilson-style 7-game samples are hidden from the default view.
| # | Score | Player | Team | G | Tgt | Yds | Y/G |
|---|
What this rating is (and isn’t)
What it is: a transparent four-component composite that scores each qualified WR’s season on volume (target share), depth-of-target (air-yards share), QB-decoupled efficiency (per-target EPA residualized against the QB’s independent value), and absolute production (yards per game). Each component is z-scored within the season and equally weighted, so league-wide swings in passing don’t inflate or deflate scores year over year.
What it isn’t: a betting projection. The composite shows measurable lift over naive baselines on next-game yards MAE (+6.5%, 95% CI excludes zero) and boom-probability Brier — but that lift is insufficient to clear the −110 vig on sportsbook prop lines. We publish it as a descriptive ranking for readers, not a tradeable model.
EPA/T* = per-target EPA after subtracting the QB’s team-season passing-EPA contribution. QB-Adj column shows the QB’s independent value (positive = good QB environment; negative = bad). Star receivers on bad QBs (Garrett Wilson on Zach Wilson, DeAndre Hopkins on Mike White) get credit they wouldn’t have under a naive efficiency rating.