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The Margin · College Baseball

Regional Win Probabilities

2026 NCAA Division I Baseball Tournament·50,000-sim Monte Carlo·SLIDER Rating

Win-Regional Probability

<10%

10–25

25–45

45–65

65–80

80%+

/ The Margin

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Snapshot · May 25, 2026

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© 2026 The Margin · McConnell Digital. All projections published for informational use; nothing here is betting advice.

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CBB team ratings powered by PEAR Ratings. Projected fields ingested from D1Baseball and Baseball America. NFL play-by-play via nflverse. Weather forecasts via Open-Meteo + ECMWF + GFS ensembles.