The Marginbeta
NFL · Fantasy RankingsProjections

Your league, your rankings.

CUSTOM SCORING · CROSS-POSITIONAL VBD · FLOOR–CEILING BANDS

Set your exact scoring and roster, and every projection, distribution band, and value-over-replacement rank recomputes instantly — in your browser, against your league. Move the PPR dial and watch the receivers re-sort. Methodology and the distribution philosophy live in /methodology.

How these are built and how they backtest →In-season? Weekly start/sit rankings →

Scoring & leagueFull PPR · 12-team · 1QB 2RB 2WR 1TE 1FLEX

Scoring

Per-game bonuses

points per qualifying game · default off

League

Starter slots

Draft Mode

Mark players as they go off the board. The panel below recomputes VBD over what's left and tells you who to take given your roster and the run. This captures roster discipline — value, need, timing — it does not out-pick the field; the projection underneath is still the consensus.

PositionsSource
#PlayerPosMarketProjFloor — CeilingVBD
1
Josh AllenBUF
QBT1
fair
363.0
205
505
+145.0
2
Ja'Marr ChaseCIN
WRT1
fair
323.0
226
457
+130.5
3
Lamar JacksonBAL
QBT2
fair
346.0
219
458
+128.0
4
Jalen HurtsPHI
QBT2
fairmodel QB63
336.0
205
463
+118.0
5
Jayden DanielsWAS
QBT2
fair
326.0
219
433
+108.0
6
Joe BurrowCIN
QBT2
fair
324.0
178
471
+106.0
7
Justin JeffersonMIN
WRT2
fair
293.0
219
368
+100.5
8
CeeDee LambDAL
WRT2
fair
291.0
184
399
+98.5
9
Patrick MahomesKC
QBT2
fair
314.0
213
424
+96.0
10
Amon-Ra St. BrownDET
WRT2
fair
286.0
186
408
+93.5
11
Brock BowersLV
TET1
fair
241.0
137
304
+93.0
12
Christian McCaffreySF
RBT1
▲ Value
319.0
191
395
+92.0
13
Bijan RobinsonATL
RBT1
fair
314.0
228
400
+87.0
14
Tyreek HillMIA
WRT2
fair
274.0
167
360
+81.5
15
Trey McBrideARI
TET1
fair
224.0
126
312
+76.0
16
Saquon BarkleyPHI
RBT1
fair
292.0
193
394
+65.0
17
Sam LaPortaDET
TET1
fair
211.0
124
288
+63.0
18
Malik NabersNYG
WRT2
fair
253.5
145
330
+61.0
19
Jahmyr GibbsDET
RBT1
fair
287.0
180
378
+60.0
20
Drake LondonATL
WRT2
fair
240.5
136
320
+48.0
21
Travis KelceKC
TET1
no ADP
192.0
133
256
+44.0
22
Mark AndrewsBAL
TET1
fair
178.0
116
230
+30.0
23
Derrick HenryBAL
RBT2
fair
255.0
187
370
+28.0
24
Ashton JeantyLVrookie
RBT2
fair
238.0
169
344
+11.0
25
Josh JacobsGB
RBT2
fair
227.0
159
279
+0.0
26
Tetairoa McMillanCARrookie
WRT3
fair
192.5
137
253
+0.0
27
Tyler WarrenINDrookie
TET2
no ADP
148.0
98
185
+0.0
28
Deshaun WatsonCLElimited
QBT3
no ADP
218.0
147
303
+0.0

Reference & methodology

Replacement levelQB#12(218.0 pts)RB#24(227.0 pts)WR#24(192.5 pts)TE#12(148.0 pts)

VBD subtracts each position's replacement-level points (the Nth startable player, FLEX demand allocated jointly across RB/WR/TE). In a 1-QB league replacement is a mid-tier starter, so elite QBs carry small VBD — that's correct, not a bug.

Ranking confidence by positionreliability info — we don't reorder by it
QBreliable0.74WRreliable0.71RBmoderate0.69TEleast reliable0.66

How reliably each position's preseason rank predicts its actual finish, from a leakage-clean 2019–2024 backtest (within-position rank correlation). QB and WR rankings are the most trustworthy; TE is the least. This is risk information, not a value signal — a high-confidence position is not more likely to beat its projection, so we do not reorder the board by it. Use it to judge how much to trust a ranking and weigh a player's own range.

How to draft with this board

VBD is how you draft, consensus is what you draft on, ADP is what you draft against. The edge here is roster discipline — never reach, always grab value, time the positional cliffs — not out-picking the field.

  1. 1. Rank by VBD for your league (the default Our Blend order). VBD is value over the last startable player at each position, for your exact roster and scoring. That is why an elite TE can top a higher-scoring QB in a 1-QB league. This is the validated method — in clean draft simulations it beats drafting by raw projected points by roughly 98 points a season.
  2. 2. The number is the consensus, and that is on purpose. We do not claim to out-project the field — clean tests show no projection ranking beats the market consensus. Our job is to wrap that consensus in the things that actually win drafts: your- league value, honest floor–ceiling ranges, and timing.
  3. 3. Draft against ADP — take Value, skip Reaches. The ▲ Value / Fair / ▼ Reach chip compares our VBD value to where the market is drafting him. Take the Value players falling past their ADP; don't burn a pick reaching for someone you can still get a round later.
  4. 4. Use tiers to time it. Tiers group players of similar value. When a tier is about to break — a real drop-off to the next group — that is when reaching slightly is justified: grab the last man before the cliff rather than the first name in the tier below.

We don't promise better players than your league-mates — no projection beats the market. We promise you draft your roster optimally, never overpay, and pounce on value. That discipline is the edge.

How these are built and how they backtest →

What the columns mean
# · Rank
Overall rank under the current source (Our Blend or Market ADP) and your exact scoring & league settings. Change the PPR dial, teams, or starter slots and the order re-sorts.
Player · Pos · team
Player name, the team logo + abbreviation, and a colored position badge (QB/RB/WR/TE). A small rookie or limited pill means the player has no standalone model line and is ranked on consensus only — rookie for a true rookie with no NFL history yet, limited for a veteran with thin recent history.
Tier label (e.g. RB T3)
Tiers group players of similar projected value within a position. The actionable move is to take the last player in a tier before it breaks — the next tier is a real drop-off. Recomputed for your scoring. Filter to a single position (in Our Blend order) and a thin divider marks each tier break; the per-row T# label always shows (tiers are a property of the projection, not the sort or the filter).
Proj
Projected season fantasy points — the consensus expected total, scored under your settings. This is the exact number the board ranks by, so Proj, rank, tier, and VBD always agree. The floor/ceiling bar shows the full distribution around it.
Floor — Ceiling
The floor (p10) to ceiling (p90) range from our calibrated simulations, scored under your settings; the tick marks the projection. It's the range if he plays roughly a full season — so a steady star reads tight and a genuine boom/bust player reads wide. Availability risk is pulled OUT of the band into the injury risk flag, so a fragile back (McCaffrey) shows a normal band plus an explicit durability flag instead of a near-zero floor.
Weekly boom/bust
Distinct from the season band: this rates his week-to-week consistency from his own game log, scored under your settings — steady scores about the same every week, swingy alternates spikes and duds (hover for his boom / bust week rates). Two players with the same projection can draft very differently — steady for a safe floor, swingy for tournament upside. Consistency info; it does not change the ranking.
VBD
Value over replacement: projected points minus the last startable player at that position for your league size and roster (the replacement levels are shown just above the table). This is the cross-positional draft value, not raw points — it's why elite QBs can carry small VBD in a 1-QB league.
Market (ADP)
The chip in this column compares our rank to average draft position — where the field is actually drafting him. (In Market (ADP) source the whole table is ordered by ADP.)
Divergence chip
How our rank lines up against the market's ADP at the player's position (e.g. our TE1 vs the market's TE4), so the verdict always matches the position labels. The threshold is 3 positional spots:
  • ▲ Value — we rank him higher at his position than the market does (≥ 3 spots), so he tends to fall past his ADP.
  • ▼ Reach — the market ranks him higher at his position than we do (≥ 3 spots) — you'd be reaching to take him at his ADP.
  • Fair — we and the market rank him at about the same spot at his position.
  • no ADP — undrafted / no market data to compare.
Source toggle (above)
Which projection drives the table order:
  • Our Blend (recommended) — Preseason expert consensus with our calibrated floor–ceiling range.
  • Market (ADP)Where the field is actually drafting. The market consensus on draft order.

Full methodology: how these are built and how they backtest →

Rank is by value over replacement (VBD), recomputed on your exact scoring and roster. Proj is the consensus expected total — the same number the rank, tier, and VBD are built on. The floor–ceiling band reads p10–p90 off the correlated-sample distribution scored under your settings, so it widens for boom/bust players and narrows for steady ones. Settings are stored in the URL (shareable) and this browser — they never leave your device.