CWS Live Bracket Tracker
Selection-frozen field · Live results · Model vs DK
The 2026 NCAA Division I baseball bracket, frozen at Selection Monday. Every row shows our 50K-sim probability that a team wins its regional and the College World Series, alongside DraftKings’ implied probability — so the upsets stand out against the chalk.
PEAR Ratings uses PEARatings.com’s published team ratings; SLIDER is our in-house rating. Win probabilities are ours, not PEARatings’.
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Methodology & caveats›
How the numbers are produced. A 50,000-iteration Monte Carlo of the NCAA tournament under the PEAR Ratings rating engine. Each sim plays out 16 regionals (double-elimination), 8 super-regionals (best-of-3), then the Omaha 8-team double-elim + best-of-3 final. Win-CWS is the fraction of sims a team holds up the trophy.
Margin of error. 50,000 sims gives ±0.4pp 95% CI on every champion probability. Anything below 0.5% is cosmetic — we render “—” rather than publishing noise. The bootstrap CIs shown on top-of-field teams are per-1k-sim blocks.
Known biases. Our rating likely over-weights SEC and ACC conference quality — Georgia Tech, Mississippi State, and Alabama may be inflated; Oregon State and Oregon are probably undervalued. Pitcher matchups are not modeled, which means real-world upset rates are likely a floor, not a ceiling.
What the colors mean. Row background is a 6-step emerald gradient keyed to win-regional probability — deeper green = more likely to escape. Once games start, eliminated teams get a strikethrough overlay; the eventual champion gets a solid emerald frame.
Win-Reg is the live Monte Carlo probability the team wins its regional, updated as completed games are folded back into the simulation. Win-CWS is the probability it wins the College World Series. DK is the DraftKings implied probability at field freeze. Cards repaint as games finalise: faded with strikethrough = eliminated, emerald frame = national champion.