CWS Game-by-Game Tracker
Schedule · Model probability · DK + consensus line · Edge
Every regional, super-regional, and Omaha game of the 2026 tournament — model probability beside the best-available sportsbook line. Lines fill in as the books post; completed rows keep their pre-game prediction beside the final score.
Today
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Cards repaint as games finalise — completed rows show the model's pick alongside the final score.
Weekend
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No games in the next 72 hours. The site repopulates the day after Selection Monday.
On the Board
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Tournament games projected and scored against the market once lines post. Regionals run double-elimination, supers are best-of-3, and the CWS finale is best-of-3 in Omaha.
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Methodology & caveats›
How the numbers are produced. A 50,000-iteration Monte Carlo of the NCAA tournament under the PEAR Ratings rating engine. Each sim plays out 16 regionals (double-elimination), 8 super-regionals (best-of-3), then the Omaha 8-team double-elim + best-of-3 final. Win-CWS is the fraction of sims a team holds up the trophy.
Margin of error. 50,000 sims gives ±0.4pp 95% CI on every champion probability. Anything below 0.5% is cosmetic — we render “—” rather than publishing noise. The bootstrap CIs shown on top-of-field teams are per-1k-sim blocks.
Known biases. Our rating likely over-weights SEC and ACC conference quality — Georgia Tech, Mississippi State, and Alabama may be inflated; Oregon State and Oregon are probably undervalued. Pitcher matchups are not modeled, which means real-world upset rates are likely a floor, not a ceiling.
What the colors mean. Row background is a 6-step emerald gradient keyed to win-regional probability — deeper green = more likely to escape. Once games start, eliminated teams get a strikethrough overlay; the eventual champion gets a solid emerald frame.
Model probability is our per-game logistic on rating diff with home-field advantage at the regional host site (neutral elsewhere). Spread is the predicted home margin in runs; we don’t publish a totals model yet. Edges are model minus market — green (▲) means we’d take the home/over leg, red (▼) means we’d fade it. Lines come from The Odds API (DraftKings preferred, Pinnacle fallback for non-P5 matchups).