CWS Odds — Who Wins Omaha
50,000-sim Monte Carlo through the NCAA tournament: regional survival, super-regional, and national-title probabilities for every team in the projected field. For the upstream Field of 64 itself, see the Field of 64 projection.
Projected bracket walk
The model's most-likely path through the field. Higher effective per-game rating wins every game; fatigue and starter rotation still apply, so favorites can flip series-to-series. The percentage next to each team is the Monte Carlo advance probability for that round -- a 62% pick reads very differently from an 84% one.
Upset Watch
The deterministic walk above is chalk by construction -- it picks the higher-rated team every game. The 50K Monte Carlo tells a richer story. These are the regionals where either the 1-seed is barely a favorite or a lower seed clears the 25% upset threshold. Sorted by upset weight.
Pitching Edge
Starter rotation strength for the title contenders. Color-coded ERAs: green ≤ 3.00, red ≥ 4.50. Where the source column reads D1B probable the data is the official D1Baseball weekend probable; Estimated means we inferred from this season's pitcher appearance log when probables weren't yet announced. Bracket sims run on ?rotation_aware=1 use these per-game deltas instead of the team rating average.
Injury Report
Where pitcher health has pulled a team's rating down. Each entry is a rating-point adjustment; in our per-game logit, one point is worth roughly nine percentage points of single-game win probability. Sorted by magnitude.
How we built this — model, bracket, field
The model
Per-game logit fit on 72,809 D1-D1 games (2014–2024) plus the current PEA Ratings. K_DIFF = 0.37 on rating diff (CI [0.364, 0.379]). HFA_LOGIT = 0.23, ~6% home boost (CI [0.217, 0.249]). Per-game Gaussian rating noise σ ≈ 2.0 captures starter-day variance. Fatigue penalty 0.40 rating pts per cumulative game in a regional or super series.
Bracket structure
16 regionals × 4 teams each (double elimination) → 8 super regionals (best-of-3) → 8 teams arrive in Omaha, split into two 4-team double-elims → best-of-3 final. Host bonus has been fit to zero in the current era -- it's fully captured by home-field advantage on neutral-vs-host games.
Field of 64
We pull weekly projections from D1Baseball and Baseball America, plus our own auto-projection from PEA Ratings, then blend them into a consensus field (3-of-3 teams first, then 2-of-3 by rating, then 1-of-3 to fill 64). Selection day is Monday, May 25 -- after that we replace projections with the actual NCAA bracket.