CWS Odds — Who Wins Omaha

Projected bracket walk

The model's most-likely path through the field, built from the same 50,000-sim Monte Carlo that drives the odds table. Each round's pick is the modal winner among the sims where every prior round's modal pick also occurred -- so the percentage next to each team reads as "given the walk to date, the share of sims in which this team advances from this round." A 62% conditional pick reads very differently from an 84% one. Bullpen depletion from regional play carries into the super and into Omaha (α = 0.35 between rounds, α = 0.75 before the bo3 final), so a team that grinds through a 6-game regional pays for it.

The modal walk shows the single most-likely sequence of round winners. Because bracket structure matters, the champion in this walk can differ from the team with the highest overall championship probability -- both views are shown.

Upset Watch

The modal walk above shows the most likely path one round at a time. The 50K Monte Carlo tells a richer story by sampling every game with rating noise. These are the regionals where either the 1-seed is barely a favorite or a lower seed clears the 25% upset threshold. Sorted by upset weight.

Pitching Edge

Starter rotation strength for the title contenders. Color-coded ERAs: green ≤ 3.00, red ≥ 4.50. Where the source column reads D1B probable the data is the official D1Baseball weekend probable; Estimated means we inferred from this season's pitcher appearance log when probables weren't yet announced. Bracket sims run on ?rotation_aware=1 use these per-game deltas instead of the team rating average.

Injury Report

Where pitcher health has pulled a team's rating down. Each entry is a rating-point adjustment; in our per-game logit, one point is worth roughly nine percentage points of single-game win probability. Sorted by magnitude.